The Impact of IMF Programs on Public Finance: Evidence From Political Transition Countries: Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, and Jordan

Contexte et objectif(s) Context: Since the 2011 Arab Spring, the IMF has become a near-constant actor in economic policymaking across several Middle East and North Africa countries. Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, and Jordan each experienced a distinct post-2011 trajectory, full democratic transition, authoritarian restoration, monarchic reform, and externally induced structural strain, respectively, while repeatedly engaging with the Fund over the following decade. More than a decade later, persistent fiscal fragility across these cases raises the question of whether IMF engagement has produced durable consolidation or merely repeated temporary relief. Research question: To what extent, and under what conditions, do IMF programs improve public finances in MENA countries experiencing political transition? Specific objectives: * Evaluate a policy: measure the average effect of IMF program participation on fiscal health via a composite Fiscal Health Index built through PCA, across a 14-country panel (2011–2024). * Analyze policy outcomes: compare qualitative trajectories across Tunisia, Egypt,…

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