| Contexte et objectif(s) | General Framework and Problem Statement:
The article is part of the debate on the rebalancing of global economic power and the question of whether China is poised to replace the United States as the world’s leading economic power. While China has overtaken the U.S. in GDP measured at purchasing power parity, the analysis stresses that economic power cannot be reduced to size alone.
The core issue is the gap between rapid quantitative growth and the structural factors that determine long-term economic leadership, such as productivity, innovation, demographics, and monetary influence. The slowdown in convergence since the Covid crisis raises doubts about the inevitability of China’s rise to global primacy.
Specific Objectives:
The work aims to:
- Clarify the relevance of different GDP indicators in assessing economic power-
- Evaluate China’s real ability to surpass the USA in terms of economic leadership
- Analyze the main structural constraints facing China, including demographic aging, limits to technological innovation, and the exhaustion of its growth model
- Examine the implications of China’s export- and industry-driven strategy for global economic relations
- Assess the limits of the Yuan’s internationalization
- Show that being "number one" requires dominance in technology, finance, and monetary systems, areas where the US still holds a clear advantage
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