| Catégories des Contributeurs | China's economic model is shifting back to one heavily dependent on exports, similar to its position after joining the WTO in 2001. The country is meeting its official 5% growth target, but this is largely fueled by a strong external sector with record-high exports and surpluses.
However, this reliance on exports is problematic because domestic demand, especially from households, remains weak. Consumer confidence has been shattered since the health crisis and has not recovered. This cautious behavior is linked to a steep decline in residential property prices, a critical asset for Chinese families. Government efforts to boost spending have had limited success, often just shifting purchases to subsidized products rather than sparking a broader spending appetite.
This lack of domestic demand, combined with a focus on foreign markets, has led to low manufacturing capacity utilization and overcapacity from past overinvestment. The resulting economic imbalances are seen in consumer prices, which are experiencing disinflation or even deflation. China faces the risk of continued weak consumption at home while its key international markets, like the U.S. and Europe, are becoming less open to its products. Despite its technological progress, the economy remains fragile. |
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